Analysis of the extent to which climate change impacts Kenyan agribusiness enterprises
Abstract
Agribusiness enterprises dependent on the rainfall reliant agriculture and livestock sectors for raw material inputs are expected to be influenced by climate change. This study sought to establish the presence and magnitude of climate change and its effects on inputs used by agribusiness enterprises in two agro-ecological regions, using climate data and expert views. Climate data for the last 40 years was retrieved online, and a questionnaire was used to capture the opinions of 46 county officers on the effects of climate change in the livestock, agriculture and water sectors. In both counties, the Coefficient of Variance (CV) demonstrated a high (> 30%) variability in the rainfall quantity received in each season over the study period. The Kendall-Mann test established the presence of an increasing rainfall trend in Kiambu, the absence of a rainfall trend in Kajiado, and an increasing temperature trend in both Counties. The Relative Importance Index (RII) on expert opinions ranked drought, erratic rainfall and insufficient rainfall as the most likely climate impacts to occur in Kajiado and the impacts having the most significant impact. In Kiambu, erratic rain was most likely to occur, most significant and having the highest consequences. Agribusiness enterprises will thus be most affected by the erratic supply of inputs from the agriculture, livestock, and water sectors in both Counties and insufficient or no quantities of input in Kajiado County.
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